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экономическое - Оживший юзерпик — LiveJournal

Aug. 6th, 2005

12:53 pm - экономическое

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Date:August 7th, 2005 07:47 pm (UTC)
А привлекательность США велика, поэтому, например, Китай готов эти бумажки скупать. Что говорит о том, какой у Китая прогноз на состояние американской экономики.

Нет. Не так.

Никакого отношения к позитивному прогнозу на состояние американской экономики это не имеет.

Дело не в том, что у Китая очень позитивный прогноз, дело в том, что у Китая выхода нет. Миллиард рабочих рук, которые надо чем-то занять. Например, делать носки и телеки для ящиков. Есть крупнейший в мире покупатель этого барахла, его величество Американский Потребитель. И Китай готов делать что угодно, в том числе финансировать любой американский дефицит, лишь бы американцы продолжали покупать китайские товары. Другое дело, что эта схема не вечна, мягко говоря, и когда она будет утрясаться, тряхнёт весь мир, причём сильно.

На эту тему есть хорошая статья Пола Волкера (предшественник Гринспана на посту руководителя федерального резерва):

Yet, under the placid surface, there are disturbing trends: huge imbalances, disequilibria, risks -- call them what you will. Altogether the circumstances seem to me as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot.
What holds it all together is a massive and growing flow of capital from abroad, running to more than $2 billion every working day, and growing. There is no sense of strain. As a nation we don't consciously borrow or beg. We aren't even offering attractive interest rates, nor do we have to offer our creditors protection against the risk of a declining dollar.
It's all quite comfortable for us. We fill our shops and our garages with goods from abroad, and the competition has been a powerful restraint on our internal prices. It's surely helped keep interest rates exceptionally low despite our vanishing savings and rapid growth.

And it's comfortable for our trading partners and for those supplying the capital. Some, such as China, depend heavily on our expanding domestic markets. And for the most part, the central banks of the emerging world have been willing to hold more and more dollars, which are, after all, the closest thing the world has to a truly international currency.

The difficulty is that this seemingly comfortable pattern can't go on indefinitely. I don't know of any country that has managed to consume and invest 6 percent more than it produces for long. The United States is absorbing about 80 percent of the net flow of international capital. And at some point, both central banks and private institutions will have their fill of dollars.

I don't know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change.

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